Business research

NAB Economics Data Insights – week ending July 2, 2022

In this podcast, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster gives you a 10-minute summary of our consumer spending analysis.

Listen to the full podcast now. If you’re listening on a mobile device, click listen in the browser.

NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster commented

  • Due to the end of the fiscal year and some unexpected results, we have advanced our bi-monthly data report by one week. Although much of the economic news has been grim lately, consumers seem to have ignored this, at least for now, spending big on EOFY sales. The influx of business was even greater than our main consumption figures.
  • Our latest weekly consumer tracking data through July 2 captures the full EOFY impact, with a larger than normal spending boom in nearly every area, combined with very strong business inflows. While it’s normal to see strong EOFY results as businesses finalize deals and consumers take advantage of traditional sales, these results are stronger than usual. Consumption increased by 11.6% before the revisions and by 3.5% after the revisions to the data for the previous weeks. All states except the NT and Tasmania won, with Victoria and New South Wales leading.
  • In total, our seasonally adjusted consumption series stands at 154.1 for the week ending July 2, 2022, in 2019 base. This was well up from the previous week (148.4) and even higher before consideration of data revisions (138.0). Retail trade came in at 146.2, down from 144.6 the previous week, but well ahead of the revisions. Hospitality fell slightly from 148.9 a week before 148.4, but is at an all-time high on a four-week moving average.
  • Business credit jumped after a mixed week the previous week, led by strong results in Victoria and New South Wales. Gains were broad-based last week, but results were particularly strong in the mining, manufacturing, hospitality and construction sectors (the latter an ongoing surprise given the well-known problems in the sector). That said, health and education continue to lag behind.
  • It remains to be seen whether this encouraging trend can continue. The RBA has raised rates by 50 basis points at each of the last two meetings and we expect another 50 basis point hike next month. Meanwhile, headwinds in the global economy continue to mount. While we still expect a soft landing for the Australian economy, growth is expected to be weaker next year – around 2%. This is not consistent with a consumer sector that works so well.
  • While this week features our consumer report, our next public release will be July 21. Our monthly Cashless Retail and Business Survey for June will be released next week, providing more detail on the state of retail sales and retail business confidence.

For more details, please see NAB Data Insights (week ending July 2, 2022)

* During these extraordinary times, NAB has made the decision to release aggregate customer data categorized by industry segment to help clarify which segments of the economy have been most impacted by broader macroeconomic trends in game. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual data is specifically identified or analyzed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made public, but insights gained from the data will be shared with the people of Australia.